Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Hormuz agreement odds fall sharply as Polymarket deadline draws near

The contract covers a qualifying United States and Iran announcement on Strait of Hormuz traffic within the November 2 to November 7 window, with resolution tied to official information and credible reporting. No qualifying official deal had emerged as the window neared its close.

A Polymarket contract tracking a United States–Iran announcement concerning Strait of Hormuz traffic fell 46.2 percentage points to 3.8 percent, according to Global Political Spotlight.

The update, published Nov 6, 2026, at 7:15 AM ET, came as the contract approached the end of its qualifying period. No qualifying official deal had emerged as that window neared its close.

A narrow announcement window

The contract covers a qualifying announcement by the United States and Iran within the November 2 to November 7 window. Its scope is specifically tied to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, rather than a broader diplomatic breakthrough.

Resolution depends on official information and credible reporting. The key question is therefore whether an announcement meets the contract’s conditions within the specified period—not simply whether diplomatic developments occur.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 46.2-percentage-point decline to 3.8 percent reflects a sharp reduction in the market’s assessed likelihood of a qualifying announcement before the deadline.
  • The November 2 to November 7 window makes timing central: an announcement outside that period would not meet the stated timing condition.
  • With no qualifying official deal reported as the window neared its close, official information and credible reporting remain the evidence to watch for resolution.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Global Political Spotlight
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Global Political Spotlight”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related