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Polymarket’s November 5 Bitcoin threshold market drops sharply within an hour

Binance, citing ChainCatcher, reports the Yes side of the Bitcoin breaks above 80,000 dollars on November 5 market on Polymarket fell to 38.85 percent from 64.8 percent one hour earlier. The 25.95 point drop was reported on November 5.

The Yes side of a Polymarket contract on whether Bitcoin breaks above 80,000 dollars on November 5 fell to 38.85 percent from 64.8 percent one hour earlier, according to Binance, citing ChainCatcher.

The 25.95 percentage-point decline was reported on November 5. The report was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 11:15 AM ET.

Contract moves below 50 percent

The change took Yes from above 50 percent to below that level within the reported hour, reversing which side of the threshold the market pricing favored.

The supplied report does not identify a catalyst or provide Bitcoin’s price, trading volume, liquidity or the contract’s detailed settlement rules. It therefore establishes a sharp change in contract pricing, but not what drove that change or whether the move persisted.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A substantial repricing: The reported Yes level declined by 25.95 percentage points, from 64.8 percent to 38.85 percent, over one hour.
  • A date-specific signal: The contract concerns Bitcoin breaking above 80,000 dollars on November 5, rather than its longer-term price outlook.
  • Limited context: Without volume, liquidity or settlement details, the report alone cannot establish how broadly supported the move was or precisely how the outcome will be determined.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Binance
    Publisher
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