Alaska and West Virginia ballot contracts show contrasting repeal and ban odds
Polymarket reports its voting markets include an Alaska ballot measure repealing ranked choice voting priced at 44 cents for Yes, and a West Virginia ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting priced at 88 cents for Yes. Polymarket hosts about 500 active voting markets, which resolve based on official results.
According to Polymarket, its voting markets price Yes at 44 cents for an Alaska ballot measure to repeal ranked choice voting and at 88 cents for a West Virginia measure to ban noncitizens from voting.
Two measures, different market expectations
The Alaska contract places Yes below the 50-cent midpoint. Its 44-cent price indicates that the market leans against passage of the ranked choice voting repeal.
The West Virginia contract reflects a stronger expectation of passage. At 88 cents, Yes is priced at twice the level of the Alaska contract, though the measures concern different voting rules.
Official results determine settlement
The prices were reported on Nov 3, 2026, at 12:30 PM ET. They represent market expectations at that point, not official outcomes.
Polymarket says it hosts about 500 active voting markets. Those markets resolve based on official results, making the distinction between trading prices and confirmed ballot outcomes central to interpreting these contracts.
What it means for prediction markets
- Alaska: The 44-cent Yes price implies roughly a 44% probability of the ranked choice voting repeal passing.
- West Virginia: The 88-cent Yes price implies roughly an 88% probability of the noncitizen voting ban passing.
- Settlement: Neither price establishes the result; official results determine how the contracts resolve.
Sources & attribution
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