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Democratic House outcome leads PolyConsensus snapshot of top Polymarket traders

PolyConsensus, with prices as of November 2 at 07:42 UTC, tracks 1,681 Polymarket markets where at least five of about 2,000 top traders hold a position, with consensus sides settled in their favour 439,657 times against 165,815 losses for a 73 percent win rate. The largest consensus is Democrats controlling the House, held by 140 of 163 top traders at 95 cents with 6.1 million dollars held.

PolyConsensus tracks 1,681 Polymarket markets in which at least five of about 2,000 top traders hold positions, according to PolyConsensus. Its snapshot uses prices as of November 2 at 07:42 UTC.

The figures show consensus sides settling favourably 439,657 times, compared with 165,815 losses—a reported 73 percent win rate. That measures past settlement results, rather than the probability that any current consensus position will succeed.

Democratic House control draws the largest consensus

The largest consensus in the snapshot is for Democrats controlling the House. According to PolyConsensus, 140 of 163 top traders in that market hold that side.

The position is priced at 95 cents, with 6.1 million dollars held. Those figures describe both the breadth of trader agreement and the money attached to the leading consensus.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 1,681-market sample covers markets with participation from at least five tracked top traders, not necessarily all Polymarket markets.
  • The reported 73 percent historical win rate is distinct from the current 95-cent price for Democrats controlling the House.
  • The House position has the largest reported consensus, but agreement among tracked traders does not establish the eventual outcome.
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Sources & attribution

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    PolyConsensus
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