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Midterm settlements put politics atop prediction markets as trading surges

No new race call in the last 30 minutes changes the picture, so this edition leads with a fresh volume/metrics read, in a category different from the previous three…

Politics led prediction-market categories over the last 24 hours, with $1.1B traded, up 377%, according to the supplied summary.

The figures accompanied an update published Nov 4, 2026, at 12:24 PM ET, as midterm contracts settled. The material does not specify the comparison period for the 377% increase.

Volume takes the lead

No new race call in the preceding 30 minutes changed the picture, the summary said. The update therefore focused on trading volume and metrics rather than a fresh electoral result.

Politics was a different category from those featured in the previous three editions. No source links or underlying contract-level figures were provided, limiting what can be established about the drivers of the category’s turnover.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Activity is not probability: The $1.1B figure measures trading volume, not a change in the likelihood of any particular election outcome.
  • Settlement is the key context: The surge occurred as midterm contracts settled, but the supplied material does not quantify how much volume was tied to those settlements.
  • No fresh race-call catalyst was identified: The update offers a category-level activity signal rather than new evidence about an individual contest.
PredictionMarketsKalshiMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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