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Political markets hold outsized open interest despite modest trading share

VIP-Grinders' October 2026 report, built on Artemis data, found politics and elections accounted for 4.5 percent of Kalshi and Polymarket volume over the past twelve months but 41.2 percent of open interest, with political open interest rising 52 percent in October to 1.01 billion dollars, its highest since the 2024 presidential election.

Politics and elections represented 4.5 percent of Kalshi and Polymarket trading volume over the past twelve months, but accounted for 41.2 percent of open interest, according to VIP-Grinders’ October 2026 report, built on Artemis data.

The figures, reported Nov 4, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET, show a substantial gap between political markets’ share of trading activity and their share of outstanding positions.

Political open interest climbs

Political open interest increased 52 percent in October to 1.01 billion dollars, according to VIP-Grinders. That was its highest level since the 2024 presidential election.

The distinction between the measurement periods matters: the 4.5 percent volume share covers the past twelve months, while the 52 percent increase in political open interest measures October’s change. These figures describe different aspects of market activity rather than a single monthly trading trend.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume alone gives an incomplete picture. Politics and elections accounted for a relatively small share of trading but a much larger share of open interest.
  • Outstanding political positions grew sharply. October’s 52 percent increase brought political open interest to its highest level since the 2024 presidential election.
  • The figures do not establish an electoral outlook. They measure activity and outstanding positions, not the probabilities of particular political outcomes.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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