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Polymarket odds of Pete Hegseth departing defense post by year-end reach 37 percent

Polymarket traders raised the chance that Pete Hegseth is out as Secretary of Defense by December 31, 2026 to 37 percent, up 4.5 points in 24 hours. The market has 942,000 dollars in lifetime volume, with 49,000 dollars traded in the last day, and resolves on January 1, 2027.

Hegseth departure odds move higher

Polymarket’s implied probability that Pete Hegseth leaves his position as Secretary of Defense by December 31, 2026 reached 37 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.

The probability rose 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours. PredictionBubbles reported the figures on Oct 31, 2026 at 8:45 AM ET.

Trading activity and deadline

Lifetime trading volume in the market totaled 942,000 dollars, with 49,000 dollars traded during the last day, according to PredictionBubbles.

The contract concerns whether Hegseth is out as Secretary of Defense by December 31, 2026. Its resolution date is January 1, 2027, distinct from the departure deadline.

The supplied report does not identify a catalyst for the increase. The move reflects a change in traders’ assessment, not confirmation that Hegseth will leave office.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Higher odds, still below half: The 4.5-percentage-point increase brought the implied departure probability to 37 percent.
  • Volume provides context: The market recorded 49,000 dollars in daily trading against 942,000 dollars in lifetime volume; those totals alone do not explain the price move.
  • Timing matters: The event deadline is December 31, 2026, while resolution is scheduled for January 1, 2027.
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Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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