OpenAI's market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027 priced at 9.1% on Polymarket, up 6.2 points, on $118K traded

OpenAI valuation contract rises

Polymarket priced a 9.1% probability that OpenAI’s market capitalisation would fall between $750B and $1T at the close of its IPO day by December 31, 2027. The October 30, 2026 update, published at 8:24 AM ET, recorded a rise of 6.2 percentage points and $118K traded.

The contract concerns a specific valuation range at a specific moment—not simply whether OpenAI will complete an IPO by the deadline. Its price therefore should not be read as a standalone estimate of the likelihood of a listing.

No fresh catalyst identified

The accompanying news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It said searches had resurfaced material already used or held out that day, leaving no clear new catalyst in the supplied reporting for the OpenAI contract’s move.

According to predictionbubbles.net, its market-movers tracker compares probabilities over 24 hours and refreshes every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 30 Oct 2026, 12:10 UTC. Rankings reflect absolute percentage-point changes, rather than relative percentage gains.

The $118K traded provides activity context, but the supplied material does not establish the contract’s order-book depth or identify what drove the repricing. Predictionbubbles.net notes that price changes can reflect news, orders in thin markets or traders responding to one another; a move alone does not distinguish among those explanations.

What it means for prediction markets

• The outcome remains narrowly defined: the contract combines an IPO deadline with a $750B–$1T valuation band measured at the IPO-day close.
• The change is in percentage points: the reported increase was 6.2 points, bringing the market-implied probability to 9.1%.
• Activity does not establish a catalyst: $118K traded accompanies the move, but the supplied reporting identifies neither a fresh trigger nor enough liquidity information to assess its durability.