Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31 priced at 20.0% on Polymarket, down 4.5 points, on $314K traded

Ceasefire contract moves lower

Polymarket’s contract on whether a Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement will be announced by December 31 was priced at 20.0%, down 4.5 probability points, with $314K traded, according to the supplied market snapshot published Oct 30, 2026, at 9:24 AM ET.

PredictionBubbles’ movers board placed the contract among declining political markets, according to the accompanying summary. The change reflects a lower market-implied probability of an announcement by the deadline—not confirmation of any change in negotiations.

What the data establishes

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers rankings measure probability-point changes over 24 hours using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The board refreshes every 15 minutes, and trading volume does not affect a market’s position in the ranking.

The supplied material contains different snapshot times: the summary references an Oct. 30, 13:25 UTC crawl, while the source page says venue data were read on 30 Oct 2026, 13:11 UTC. The extracted page does not display the ceasefire contract’s individual entry, so its specific price, move and volume are available here only through the supplied headline.

No diplomatic announcement or other catalyst for the decline is identified in the material. Nor does it establish the period covered by the contract’s $314K traded figure or provide its order-book depth.

What it means for prediction markets

• The deadline matters: The contract concerns an agreement being announced by December 31, rather than the broader outlook for Saudi-Houthi relations.
• The decline is in points: The reported move is 4.5 probability points, not a 4.5% relative decrease.
• Volume is not liquidity: The $314K traded figure provides activity context but does not establish how readily orders could be executed.
• The catalyst remains unverified: The repricing alone cannot establish whether traders reacted to diplomatic developments, trading flows or other information.