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Odds of OpenAI solving another Millennium Prize problem drop to 14.5 percent

Polymarket traders lowered the chance that OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026 to 14.5 percent, down 4 points in 24 hours. The market has 442,000 dollars in lifetime volume and resolves on January 1, 2027.

Odds decline to 14.5 percent

Polymarket’s probability that OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026 fell to 14.5 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.

The update, published Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, recorded a decline of 4 percentage points over 24 hours. The move reflects traders assigning a lower likelihood to an announcement before the deadline.

Volume and resolution

The market has accumulated 442,000 dollars in lifetime trading volume, PredictionBubbles reported. That figure covers the market’s full trading history, rather than just the 24-hour period in which the probability fell.

The announcement deadline is December 31, 2026, while the market resolves on January 1, 2027. The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the price decline or provide detailed resolution criteria.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Lower implied likelihood: The 14.5 percent reading represents a 4-percentage-point downward shift in 24 hours, not confirmation of whether an announcement will occur.
  • Volume has a different timeframe: The 442,000 dollars in lifetime volume does not establish how much trading accompanied the latest move.
  • Timing matters: The announcement cutoff is December 31, 2026; resolution follows on January 1, 2027.
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Sources & attribution

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    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
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    https://predictionbubbles.com
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