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One Wallet, Three Bets, $1.4 Million: ndb1 Bought the Midterms

One wallet just became the midterm market. On Polymarket, a trader listed as ndb1 placed three linked positions in a single day totaling about $1.4 million, each one sized large enough to dominate its market's daily flow.

The biggest was $557,000 bought at 31 cents on which party will win the Senate in 2026, a stake equal to 19.4 percent of that market's 24-hour volume. The same wallet added a $544,000 NO position at 93 cents on which party will win the House, and a $306,000 position at 26 cents on Balance of Power for the 2026 midterms.

Those prices sit far from the consensus board. DeFi Rate's Oct. 31 average across Kalshi and Polymarket puts Democrats at about 71 percent to win the Senate and about 94 percent to win the House, which makes ndb1's 31-cent and 26-cent entries look like deep-discount bets, not follow-the-crowd trades.

ndb1 was not alone. The same whale leaderboard shows a $208,000 Cavaliers position at 44 cents and a $199,000 Team Liquid position at 80 cents that would return about $249,000 if it wins. When one wallet can be a fifth of a market's day, its price is not just a bet. It is a signal everyone else has to trade around.

notable tradesPolymarketmidtermswhalesInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Lineslines.com
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    https://www.lines.com
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    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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