Polymarket pricing for a December Fed interest rate hold reaches 27.5 percent

December Fed hold pricing rises

Polymarket pricing for no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting reached 27.5%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers board. Reported trading volume was $2.5M.

The update was published on Oct. 31, 2026, at 12:54 PM ET. The supplied summary identifies a board crawl at Oct. 31, 16:55 UTC, using data read at Oct. 31, 16:15 UTC.

PredictionBubbles ranked 1,997 markets, with 470 moving by at least 1 point. The supplied summary cuts off before specifying the period over which those movements were measured.

The rise indicates stronger market pricing for unchanged rates, although 27.5% remains below an even chance. The available material does not identify a catalyst, provide the contract’s resolution rules or break down pricing for alternative December outcomes.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction matters: The 3.0-percentage-point increase marks a shift toward the unchanged-rate outcome, not a change in Fed policy itself.
• Volume provides limited context: The reported $2.5M traded does not establish current liquidity or explain what drove the move.
• Timing limits interpretation: The data-read and crawl timestamps are distinct; the supplied figures should be treated as a snapshot rather than a live quote.