Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 priced at 78.0% on Kalshi, down 5 points, on $1.0M traded
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used, web-taken or banned (the CNN $1.4B midterm-volume report…
Maduro contract falls to 78.0%
Kalshi’s market on whether Nicolás Maduro will be Venezuela’s head of state on Dec 31, 2026 was priced at 78.0%, down 5 probability points, with $1.0M traded, according to the supplied market update published Oct 24, 2026 at 2:54 AM ET. The price still favors Maduro holding that position on the specified date.
The supplied news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It provides no fresh reporting on Venezuela that would explain the decline, leaving the catalyst for the repricing unestablished.
What the available data shows
According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board compares probabilities over 24 hours and refreshes every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot dated 24 Oct 2026, 06:36 UTC.
The outlet ranks changes in probability points rather than relative percentages. Its methodology therefore distinguishes the size of a price adjustment from trading activity: volume provides context but does not determine a market’s movement ranking.
The supplied page excerpt does not display the Maduro contract itself, so it does not independently confirm the headline’s contract-specific figures. Nor does the headline specify the period covered by the $1.0M traded figure or provide order-book depth, limiting what can be concluded about the liquidity behind the move.
What it means for prediction markets
- Lower confidence, but still the favored outcome: The 78.0% price indicates that the market continues to favor Maduro being head of state on Dec 31, 2026 despite the 5-point decline.
- No verified catalyst: The available material establishes a reported price move, not a newly documented political development.
- Volume is not depth: The $1.0M traded figure alone cannot establish how much liquidity was available when prices changed or how broadly trading drove the adjustment.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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