Natural gas rebounds to $3.26 as European gas hits a four-year high

U.S. natural gas rebounded on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, while European prices reached their highest level since December 2022, highlighting a widening gap between the two markets. November NYMEX futures traded at $3.26 per MMBtu, gaining 9.3 cents, or 2.94%, according to tradingnews.com. Dutch TTF futures rose 3.06% to €86.93 per megawatt-hour.

The U.S. recovery followed a decline to $3.099 at 12:31 UTC, when the contract was down 0.29%. Monday’s trading had marked a fourth consecutive session of support near the 200-day moving average, around $3.10. That area also contains the $3.105 midpoint retracement of the previous advance, making it a near-term reference point for the rebound.

Europe’s shortage meets a U.S. export bottleneck

According to tradingnews.com, Qatar’s LNG exports remain blocked by disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. European inventories compound that supply pressure: as of October 7, EU storage was roughly 16 to 17 percentage points below the 90% seasonal norm and about 11% below year-earlier levels. Forecasts for below-normal temperatures in Northwestern Europe during the second half of October add another potential demand strain.

At prevailing exchange rates, the outlet puts TTF’s price at roughly $30 per MMBtu—more than $26 above Henry Hub. U.S. LNG feedgas deliveries reached near 19.6 Bcf per day during September’s rally, but export infrastructure limits how much additional demand can reach the domestic market. High overseas prices therefore support terminal utilization without necessarily producing an equivalent increase in U.S. prices.

Domestic inventories limit the rebound

U.S. storage increased by 85 Bcf in the week ended October 2, 2026, exceeding preliminary expectations of 79 Bcf and marking the largest injection since late June, according to tradingnews.com. Working inventories reached roughly 3,500 Bcf. Storage is projected to reach 3,985 Bcf by the end of October, the highest in 10 years and about 5% above the five-year average. The next storage report, covering the week ended October 9, is due Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Production also provides a substantial buffer: Lower 48 dry gas output averaged a record 111.5 Bcf per day in August, compared with July’s record 110.7 Bcf per day. Yet positioning leaves room for a sharp reaction to colder forecasts. The latest positioning figures cited by tradingnews.com show funds net short 133,000 contracts across NYMEX natural gas futures and options, creating potential for short covering if the weather outlook shifts.

What it means for prediction markets

• Separate European and U.S. outcomes. Restricted LNG export capacity means higher TTF prices need not translate into a comparable Henry Hub increase.
• Watch the next inventory release. Thursday’s report offers a fresh test of whether the recent acceleration in U.S. storage builds is continuing.
• Weather can affect both demand and positioning. Colder forecasts could increase heating expectations while putting pressure on the reported 133,000-contract net short.
• Terminal disruptions can pull prices in different directions. Hurricane-related LNG shutdowns could reduce U.S. feedgas demand and leave more domestic supply available even as Europe faces constrained imports.