Championship-series win odds swing more than 20 points

Cleveland gains as Tampa Bay retreats

Cleveland’s Polymarket probability of winning the ALCS reached 58.2%, rising 21.9 percentage points over 24 hours, according to the supplied market summary published Oct 13, 2026 · 6:24 PM ET. Reported trading volume stood at $876K.

Tampa Bay moved in the opposite direction, falling 22.2 percentage points to 41.4%, with $517K traded. The snapshot puts Cleveland ahead in market-implied series-win probability after a substantial shift in pricing.

What the available data establishes

The headline describes moves exceeding 20 points in both leagues, but the supplied summary cuts off at Milwaukee. Neither its probability nor its change or trading volume is available in the accompanying material, so the National League side cannot be detailed from this record.

According to predictionbubbles.net, its board measures daily probability changes in percentage points and reports total traded volume where venues provide it. The $876K and $517K figures therefore should not be read as amounts necessarily traded during the same 24-hour window as the price moves.

PredictionBubbles says it refreshes prices from Kalshi and Polymarket every 15 minutes. These figures represent market pricing rather than verified probabilities of the eventual outcomes; the supplied material does not identify what drove the ALCS repricing.

What it means for prediction markets

• A large shift, not a settled outcome: Cleveland’s 58.2% price makes it the market-implied favorite in the supplied ALCS snapshot, while Tampa Bay remains at 41.4%.
• Volume and movement measure different things: The daily price changes show how expectations shifted; cumulative traded volume does not establish current liquidity or the pace of recent trading.
• The two-league claim has limited supporting detail: The available figures document the ALCS swing, but do not allow a comparable assessment of Milwaukee or the National League market.