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Colom takes Mississippi Senate market lead as vote trackers diverge

Democrat Scott Colom has flipped ahead of Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi Senate winner market, after sitting near 10 percent for most of October. Kalshi's tracker showed Colom ahead by just 43 votes with 95.6 percent counted, while Polymarket's tracker showed a lead of about 2,100 votes, and neither venue is treating the race as settled.

Democrat Scott Colom has moved ahead of Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in prediction markets for the Mississippi Senate winner, according to Vegas Insider. Colom’s contracts were priced at 83 cents on Kalshi and 85 cents on Polymarket, with about 95 percent of votes counted.

The update, published Nov 4, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, marks a sharp reversal from most of October, when Colom’s market-implied chances sat near 10 percent.

Different trackers, different margins

Kalshi’s tracker showed Colom leading by just 43 votes with 95.6 percent counted, according to Vegas Insider. Polymarket’s tracker showed a larger advantage of about 2,100 votes.

Both trackers put Colom ahead, but the differing margins leave an important distinction between the vote picture displayed at each venue. Neither venue is treating the race as settled.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Market leadership is not a final result. Prices of 83 cents on Kalshi and 85 cents on Polymarket favor Colom, while neither venue treats the contest as decided.
  • The tracker discrepancy matters. A 43-vote lead and an advantage of about 2,100 votes present different pictures of the remaining uncertainty.
  • The repricing has been substantial. Colom’s rise from near 10 percent for most of October shows how sharply market expectations have shifted as the count advances.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Vegas Insider
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