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El-Sayed leads Michigan Senate markets as polls show narrow advantage

PoliAgg reports the cross-platform market consensus prices Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 81 cents to win Michigan's open Senate seat against Republican Mike Rogers, while its average of the three most recent polls puts El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at 46 percent.

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is priced at 81 cents to win Michigan’s open Senate seat against Republican Mike Rogers in the cross-platform market consensus, according to PoliAgg.

PoliAgg’s average of the three most recent polls shows a tighter contest: El-Sayed has 48 percent support, compared with 46 percent for Rogers. The figures were reported on Nov 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET.

Market confidence and voter support

Both measures favor El-Sayed, but they describe different things. The market price concerns whether he will win the seat; the polling average measures voter support and gives him a two-percentage-point lead.

The 81-cent price therefore should not be read as a forecast of El-Sayed’s vote share. Nor does its numerical distance from 48 percent, by itself, establish that markets and polls contradict one another.

What it means for prediction markets

  • El-Sayed is the market favorite: PoliAgg’s cross-platform consensus puts his winning contract at 81 cents.
  • Polling shows a narrow lead: The three-poll average places El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by two percentage points, 48 percent to 46 percent.
  • The comparison has limits: The supplied summary does not include individual poll details or platform-level prices, limiting assessment of how broadly the consensus is shared.
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    PoliAgg
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