Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31 priced at 11.5% on Polymarket, up 4.0 points, on $243K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board, on its Oct. 30, 07:54 UTC crawl with data read at Oct. 30, 07:08 UTC, lists the Pezeshkian departure contract among its traded political…
Polymarket’s contract on whether Masoud Pezeshkian will be out by December 31 was priced at 11.5%, up 4.0 probability points, with $243K traded, according to the supplied market snapshot attributed to PredictionBubbles. The departure outcome remained the less likely result in market pricing despite the increase.
The snapshot and its limits
The supplied summary places the contract on PredictionBubbles’ political movers board in an Oct. 30, 07:54 UTC crawl, using data read at Oct. 30, 07:08 UTC. The story was published on Oct 30, 2026 · 4:24 AM ET.
The accompanying PredictionBubbles page carries a different data timestamp: 30 Oct 2026, 08:08 UTC. Its supplied text explains the board’s methodology but does not reproduce the Pezeshkian listing. The contract figures therefore belong to the supplied story snapshot, rather than a separately visible entry in that later page extract.
What the move establishes
According to PredictionBubbles, its board compares prices over 24 hours and refreshes every 15 minutes, drawing on Polymarket and Kalshi. Rankings reflect the absolute change in implied probability, measured in points; trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine placement.
The supplied material identifies no political development behind the Pezeshkian repricing and provides no contract-specific settlement rules. It establishes a change in market pricing, not an independently reported change in his position. The $243K traded figure adds activity context, but the supplied contract snapshot does not specify its measurement period or show order-book depth.
What it means for prediction markets
- Direction and level differ: the 4.0-point increase shows a higher price for departure, while 11.5% still places that outcome well below an even chance.
- Timing matters: the contract snapshot and the accompanying page extract have different timestamps and should not be treated as one synchronized observation.
- Activity is not liquidity: $243K traded does not, by itself, establish how much trading would be needed to move the price.
- The catalyst remains unverified: the material supplies neither a news explanation for the move nor the precise conditions governing a December 31 resolution.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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