Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026 priced at 1.8% on Polymarket, down 39.0 points, on $130K traded
PredictionBubbles' politics board, fresh on its Oct. 30, 09:09 UTC crawl at 1,011 open markets with $4.91B traded, lists the Kharkiv entry contract among its largest…
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A Polymarket contract on whether Russia will enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026 was priced at 1.8%, down 39.0 percentage points over 24 hours, according to PredictionBubbles. The contract had $130K in total traded volume.
The snapshot comes from the board’s Oct. 30, 2026, 09:09 UTC crawl. The sharp decline places the contract among the politics board’s largest probability moves, but the supplied material identifies no news event or trading catalyst behind the repricing.
A large move, not a battlefield assessment
PredictionBubbles ranks its movers by the absolute change in probability over the preceding 24 hours. That ranking is separate from its volume leaderboard: the Kharkiv contract’s $130K represents total trading, not necessarily money exchanged during the decline.
The 1.8% reading reflects traders’ pricing of the contract’s outcome, rather than independent confirmation of conditions in Kharkiv. The supplied material does not include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria, leaving the precise definition of entry unspecified here.
The broader politics board
According to PredictionBubbles, the crawl covered 1,011 open politics markets with $4.91B traded. Its coverage included 229 markets from Kalshi and 782 from Polymarket, while the embedded visualization displayed the 300 largest markets by volume.
PredictionBubbles refreshes its data every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues is continuous. The service describes itself as an information provider displaying venue prices, not a platform that accepts wagers or holds customer funds.
What it means for prediction markets
The signal is a substantial repricing: a 39.0-percentage-point fall left the Kharkiv entry outcome priced at 1.8% for the December 31, 2026 deadline.
Volume has limits as context: $130K in cumulative trading does not establish how much activity drove the latest move.
Resolution wording matters: without the full criteria, readers cannot determine exactly what would qualify as Russia entering Kharkiv.
The snapshot does not explain the cause: the supplied reporting supports the price change, but not a conclusion about the military developments or trader decisions behind it.