Hezbollah disarm by December 31 priced at 3.0% on Polymarket, down 5.0 points, on $2.1M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board, fresh on its Oct. 30, 08:39 UTC crawl with data read at Oct. 30, 08:08 UTC, lists the Hezbollah disarmament contract among its downward…
The Polymarket contract on whether Hezbollah will disarm by December 31 was priced at 3.0%, down 5.0 probability points over 24 hours, with $2.1M traded, according to the supplied market snapshot. PredictionBubbles’ Oct. 30 movers summary placed the contract among markets registering declines.
A decline without an identified catalyst
The figures show traders assigning a low probability to disarmament by the deadline. The supplied material does not identify a news event behind the decline or provide the contract’s detailed settlement criteria, limiting what can be concluded about the repricing.
The timing also warrants care. The summary describes an Oct. 30, 08:39 UTC crawl using data read at Oct. 30, 08:08 UTC, while the supplied PredictionBubbles page labels its venue-data reading as 30 Oct 2026, 08:39 UTC. The article snapshot was published Oct 30, 2026 · 4:39 AM ET.
How the movement is measured
According to PredictionBubbles, its board compares prices over 24 hours and updates every 15 minutes using data from Polymarket and Kalshi. It ranks changes by probability points rather than relative percentages; the Hezbollah contract’s decline is therefore a 5.0-point move, not a 5.0% relative drop.
The board’s stated universe covers 2,034 markets lasting longer than 14 days, with only open contracts that have a valid 24-hour comparison eligible for ranking. Trading volume provides context but does not affect a market’s position. The supplied Hezbollah snapshot does not specify the period covered by its $2.1M traded figure or establish the contract’s liquidity.
What it means for prediction markets
- Price is not confirmation: The 3.0% reading reflects market pricing, not evidence that the underlying disarmament outcome has been decided.
- Volume needs context: The $2.1M traded figure alone does not show how much trading accompanied the 24-hour decline.
- Resolution details remain important: Without the settlement criteria or an identified catalyst, the snapshot supports a conclusion about repricing—not about why traders changed their assessment.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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