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Jackson reaches 90.5 percent as Maine Senate market shifts further Democratic

Polyguana reports Troy Jackson has climbed to 90.5 percent in the Maine Senate market against Susan Collins, up from 82.5 percent in the 9 p.m. ET read. The board now prices the seat as a safe Democratic flip, though the race had not been called in the latest read.

According to Polyguana, Troy Jackson reached 90.5 percent in the Maine Senate market against Susan Collins in its Nov 3, 2026 update published at 9:15 PM ET.

That was up from 82.5 percent at the 9 p.m. ET reading, an increase of 8 percentage points between the two updates.

Market confidence rises ahead of a call

Polyguana described the board as pricing the seat as a safe Democratic flip. The latest market reading therefore showed stronger confidence in Jackson than the earlier snapshot.

The race had not been called in the latest reading, however. The market’s assessment remained distinct from a confirmed election outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The move from 82.5 percent to 90.5 percent marked a substantial increase in the market-implied likelihood of a Jackson victory.
  • The absence of a race call is the key qualification: a strong market favorite is not a settled result.
  • The supplied update does not identify what drove the change, limiting conclusions about the information behind the repricing.
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Sources & attribution

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    Polyguana
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