Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or priced at 13.0% on Polymarket, down 6.0 points, on $119K traded

Yamal runner-up contract moves lower

Polymarket’s contract on Lamine Yamal finishing second in the 2026 Ballon d'Or was priced at 13.0%, down 6.0 probability points, with $119K traded in the supplied Oct 26, 2026 · 4:09 PM ET snapshot.

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among declining sports markets on its movers board, rather than as the board’s lead move. The supplied material does not identify a news event behind the decline.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles ranks changes over 24 hours using probability points, not relative percentage changes. Its source snapshot was read from the venues on 26 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC, and the board refreshes every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi.

The board covers 1,992 markets that remain live for longer than 14 days, according to PredictionBubbles. It excludes same-week fixtures and requires open markets to have a valid 24-hour price comparison, limiting distortions from contracts approaching settlement or lacking a day-old baseline.

Trading volume provides context but does not affect the movement ranking. The $119K figure therefore accompanies Yamal’s repricing without establishing how much liquidity was available or what caused traders to lower the contract’s price.

What it means for prediction markets

• The outcome is narrowly defined: This contract concerns Yamal finishing second, not winning the award or achieving another placing.
• The decline is a probability-point move: The 6.0-point fall should not be read as a 6.0% relative decline.
• The catalyst remains unverified: The available material documents a price change, but supplies no underlying sports development explaining it.
• Volume is not market depth: The reported $119K traded does not, by itself, show how easily orders could move the price.