NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026 priced at 91.1% on Polymarket, up 25.4 points, on $277K traded

NVIDIA’s Polymarket contract on whether it will be the world’s largest company by market capitalization on October 31, 2026 was priced at 91.1%, up 25.4 probability points, with $277K traded, in the October 26, 2026 update published at 4:39 PM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract led the day’s upward moves in its finance category. The repricing reflects a stronger market-implied expectation for NVIDIA to meet the specified ranking on the settlement date, rather than confirmation of its current market-cap position.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles ranks changes over a 24-hour window using probability points, not relative percentage gains. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot records venue data read on 26 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC.

According to PredictionBubbles, the ranking covers 1,992 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid day-old price comparison qualify, and trading volume does not affect their place in the movement rankings.

What the figures do—and do not—show

The $277K traded provides context for the NVIDIA contract’s price change, but the supplied material does not establish order-book depth or identify a specific catalyst. It also provides no company valuation figures or competing market-cap totals with which to assess the underlying outcome independently.

PredictionBubbles distinguishes price movement from trading activity: a large repricing and a heavily traded contract are separate observations. Its methodology therefore supports describing NVIDIA as the finance category’s leading upward mover, not treating that designation as additional evidence that the contract will resolve positively.

What it means for prediction markets

• A high implied probability remains uncertain: the 91.1% price is a market assessment of the October 31, 2026 outcome, not a settled result.
• The unit matters: the increase was 25.4 probability points over 24 hours, not a 25.4% relative gain.
• Volume is context, not a liquidity guarantee: $277K traded does not by itself establish how readily traders could transact at the displayed price.
• The catalyst is unverified: the supplied reporting documents the repricing but does not explain what drove it.