Luca Van Assche wins priced at 17.0% on Kalshi, down 17.0 points, on $794K traded
PredictionBubbles' sports board lists the Van Assche match contract among its largest downward sports moves, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead. It has…
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Luca Van Assche’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at a 17.0% market-implied probability, down 17.0 percentage points, with $794K traded in the Oct 26, 2026 · 4:54 PM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract was among the largest downward moves on its sports board.
A sharp move, with limited match context
PredictionBubbles ranks its sports movers by the absolute change in probability over the preceding 24 hours. That makes the Van Assche decline a measure of repricing, rather than a ranking of trading activity.
The supplied material does not identify Van Assche’s opponent, the tournament, the match status or the contract’s resolution deadline. It also provides no explanation for the decline, so the move cannot be attributed to a particular match development or news event.
Where the price sits on the board
According to PredictionBubbles, its sports coverage includes 595 open markets: 213 on Kalshi and 382 on Polymarket. Its embedded display features the 300 largest by volume, while the full sports listing includes each tracked contract’s probability, 24-hour change and traded volume.
The service refreshes its data every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues is continuous. PredictionBubbles displays exchange-published prices rather than setting odds or accepting wagers; the 17.0% figure therefore reflects traders’ pricing of the outcome, not an independently assessed forecast.
What it means for prediction markets
Movement and volume measure different things. The 17.0-point decline captures the change in implied probability; the $794K figure is total traded volume, not necessarily activity during the decline.
The snapshot has timing limits. A 15-minute refresh cycle means the displayed probability may differ from the latest Kalshi price.
Contract details remain important. The supplied material does not establish the exact match terms. PredictionBubbles also cautions that related questions across Kalshi and Polymarket can have different wording and resolution rules.