Kalshi Senate simulation puts Democratic and independent control above market pricing
No significant new prediction-platform headline in the last 30 minutes; under today's Election Day political focus this edition leads with a fresh markets-versus-models…
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Related
- Senate markets barely flinch at the first exit polls, with Kalshi Senate control dipping just 1 point to 73 percent for Democrats, The Prediction Network reports
- Senate control averages 74.8 percent for Democrats at 6:09 p.m. ET, with Kalshi's 74.1 percent constructed from its balance of power legs against Polymarket at 75.5 percent, DeFi Rate reports
- Historical research finds prediction markets have overstated the challenging party's sweep odds at this point in the last five midterms, ZeroHedge reports
- Nate Silver's FLIPR model gives Democrats polling leads of 4.9 points in Michigan, 3.9 in Maine, 3.3 in Texas, 3 in Ohio and 1.1 in Iowa, Coinpedia reports
- Prediction market odds put Democrats at about 95 percent for the House and 75 percent for the Senate as Wall Street trades into the results, XTB reports
- The midterms are just 3.4% of Polymarket's traded dollars in the last 30 days, against 77% in the 2024 cycle