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Kalshi diesel contracts show sharp probability gap between nearby thresholds

PredictionBubbles' other board, read this run, lists the contract on the November 5 diesel price being above $6.260 at 13.0% on $19K traded on Kalshi, with above $6.255…

According to PredictionBubbles, Kalshi’s contracts on the November 5 diesel price showed a wide probability gap between two closely spaced thresholds. The November 4 snapshot put the chance of a price above $6.260 at 13.0%, versus 95% for a price above $6.235.

A narrow price interval, sharply different odds

The supplied summary listed $19K traded on Kalshi’s above-$6.260 contract. It did not provide trading volume for the above-$6.235 contract.

The item was published Nov 4, 2026 · 7:54 PM ET, ahead of the November 5 outcome. Those readings describe the market snapshot in the supplied material, not a confirmed diesel price.

Limited detail on the intermediate threshold

The summary also referenced an above-$6.255 contract, but cut off before giving its probability or volume. No source links or further contract details were supplied, limiting comparisons across the full set of thresholds.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 13.0% and 95% readings show substantially different market expectations at thresholds separated by $0.025. The exact threshold is therefore central to interpreting each contract.
  • The $19K trading figure applies only to the above-$6.260 contract; the supplied material does not establish comparable activity elsewhere on the board.
  • Without the complete above-$6.255 entry or settlement details, the snapshot cannot establish the full probability distribution or how the diesel-price outcome will be determined.
PredictionMarketsKalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com/markets
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Kalshi”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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