Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Bayh leads Kalshi’s Indiana statewide odds after weekend swings

IndyStar reports Kalshi gives Democratic candidate Beau Bayh a 57 percent chance of winning the Indiana secretary of state race, with total trading volume of 56,000 dollars, after volatility over the weekend. In the Indiana 5th Congressional District race, Kalshi gives Victoria Spartz an 80 percent chance of winning re-election.

Kalshi assigns Democratic candidate Beau Bayh a 57 percent chance of winning the Indiana secretary of state race, according to IndyStar.

Total trading volume in that market is 56,000 dollars. The figures offer a snapshot of market expectations in reporting published Nov 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

Two Indiana races, different probabilities

The Bayh pricing follows volatility over the weekend, according to IndyStar. The supplied summary does not specify the size or direction of those moves, so it does not establish whether his latest probability represents a gain or a decline.

In the Indiana 5th Congressional District race, Kalshi gives Victoria Spartz an 80 percent chance of winning re-election, according to IndyStar. That places her implied likelihood of victory above Bayh’s, though the probabilities concern separate contests.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Bayh’s 57 percent probability makes him more likely than not to win in Kalshi’s pricing, but leaves substantial uncertainty.
  • The 56,000 dollars in volume measures trading activity, not the accuracy of the market’s forecast.
  • Weekend volatility makes the timing of the Bayh snapshot relevant; the summary provides no price history for assessing the movement.
  • Spartz’s 80 percent probability indicates a stronger market expectation of victory, not a settled outcome.
KalshiElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    IndyStar
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to IndyStar”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related