Texas Senate leads daily trading in Kalshi’s midterm election markets
PredictionMarketPicks reports its live midterms money tracker, updated November 3 at 8:37 p.m. UTC, counts 405,535,248 contracts traded across the 2026 Senate, House and chamber-control prediction markets on Kalshi, with 66,550,058 contracts traded in the past 24 hours and open interest of 286,466,975 contracts across 100 live races, led in the last 24 hours by the Texas Senate race.
Kalshi’s 2026 midterm election markets recorded 405,535,248 contracts traded, according to PredictionMarketPicks’ live midterms money tracker. The tally covers Senate, House and chamber-control prediction markets.
Trading activity and open positions
The tracker was updated November 3 at 8:37 p.m. UTC. It counted 66,550,058 contracts traded in the past 24 hours, alongside open interest of 286,466,975 contracts across 100 live races.
The Texas Senate race led trading over that 24-hour period, according to PredictionMarketPicks. The supplied summary does not give a separate contract count for that race or identify the next most-active markets.
What the figures establish
The report was published Nov 3, 2026 · 5:15 PM ET. Its figures describe trading volume and open interest, rather than dollar turnover or the implied probability of an election outcome. The summary provides no market prices or candidate-level probability changes.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 66,550,058 contracts traded in the past 24 hours provide a measure of recent activity, but no prior-period comparison is supplied to establish whether trading accelerated.
- Texas Senate’s lead identifies the busiest race over that window; it does not establish which candidate traders favored.
- Open interest of 286,466,975 contracts is a separate measure from trading volume. Neither figure alone reveals how markets price Senate, House or chamber control.
Sources & attribution
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Related
- Senate markets barely flinch at the first exit polls, with Kalshi Senate control dipping just 1 point to 73 percent for Democrats, The Prediction Network reports
- Senate control averages 74.8 percent for Democrats at 6:09 p.m. ET, with Kalshi's 74.1 percent constructed from its balance of power legs against Polymarket at 75.5 percent, DeFi Rate reports
- Historical research finds prediction markets have overstated the challenging party's sweep odds at this point in the last five midterms, ZeroHedge reports
- Nate Silver's FLIPR model gives Democrats polling leads of 4.9 points in Michigan, 3.9 in Maine, 3.3 in Texas, 3 in Ohio and 1.1 in Iowa, Coinpedia reports
- Prediction market odds put Democrats at about 95 percent for the House and 75 percent for the Senate as Wall Street trades into the results, XTB reports
- The midterms are just 3.4% of Polymarket's traded dollars in the last 30 days, against 77% in the 2024 cycle