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Kalshi prices favor Democratic control as midterm trading tops 371 million

PredictionMarketsPicks, updated on November 3, counts 371,112,277 contracts traded across Kalshi Senate, House and chamber-control markets. Kalshi prices Democrats to control the Senate at 75 percent and the House at 93 percent, with live election-night coverage starting at 5 p.m. ET.

Kalshi’s Senate, House and chamber-control markets have recorded 371,112,277 contracts traded, according to PredictionMarketsPicks’ November 3 update.

The figures were published on Nov 3, 2026, at 5:30 AM ET, providing a snapshot of trading activity and chamber-control pricing ahead of election-night coverage.

House pricing shows a stronger Democratic lean

Kalshi prices imply a 75 percent probability that Democrats will control the Senate, according to PredictionMarketsPicks. The corresponding probability for Democratic control of the House is 93 percent.

That puts the House probability 18 percentage points above the Senate probability. Both markets favor Democratic control, but neither price represents a certain outcome.

Election-night coverage begins at 5 p.m. ET

PredictionMarketsPicks says live election-night coverage will start at 5 p.m. ET. The supplied update does not include a breakdown of trading volume by chamber or individual market.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Different levels of uncertainty: The 75 percent Senate probability leaves more room for a different outcome than the House’s 93 percent probability.
  • Aggregate activity, not market-level depth: The 371,112,277-contract total covers Senate, House and chamber-control markets; it does not establish how trading is distributed among them.
  • A dated snapshot: These probabilities reflect the November 3 update, not election results or necessarily the prices that will prevail during live coverage.
KalshiSenateElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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