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Polymarket loses volume ground to Kalshi as US incentives expand

Polymarket's international platform and Polymarket US together took 17.2 percent of combined face-value volume with Kalshi in the 30 days before October 29, according to the DeFi Rate volume tracker cited by Gaming America, down from 93.8 percent in October 2024. Polymarket US filed nine CFTC amendments between October 2 and October 26 covering seven deposit, rebate and referral programs as it pays traders to return.

Polymarket’s international platform and Polymarket US accounted for 17.2 percent of their combined face-value trading volume with Kalshi in the 30 days before October 29, according to the DeFi Rate volume tracker cited by Gaming America.

That compares with 93.8 percent in October 2024. The figures show a substantial shift in the distribution of volume between the platforms, with Polymarket now representing a much smaller portion of the combined total.

US platform uses incentives to attract returning traders

Polymarket US filed nine CFTC amendments between October 2 and October 26 covering seven deposit, rebate and referral programs, according to Gaming America. The filings accompany its effort to pay traders to return.

The incentive activity and the latest volume measurement overlap in October. The provided figures, however, do not establish whether those programs have increased trading or changed Polymarket’s share.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The denominator matters: The 17.2 percent figure measures Polymarket’s international and US platforms against their combined face-value volume with Kalshi—not against the entire prediction-market industry.
  • Volume share is not trader share: These figures do not establish how many traders use each platform or how active individual accounts are.
  • The incentive outcome remains unproven: Nine amendments covering seven programs document Polymarket US’s effort to attract returning traders, but the supplied reporting does not quantify the programs’ results.
KalshiPolymarketCFTCInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Gaming America
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