Pulido and Omar lead Kalshi pricing with sharply different projected margins
Kalshi reports its live House board prices Pulido at 87 percent against Cruz at 13 percent in Texas's 15th district, with a projected margin of D plus 7.9, and Omar at 98 percent against Nagel at 2 percent in Minnesota's 5th district, with a projected margin of D plus 58.7.
Kalshi’s live House board puts Pulido and Omar ahead in their respective districts, according to Kalshi’s update published Nov 3, 2026, at 4:15 PM ET. Both races favor the same side in the board’s projected margins, but the size of those margins differs substantially.
Texas’s 15th district
In Texas’s 15th district, Kalshi prices Pulido at 87 percent against Cruz at 13 percent. The board lists a projected margin of D plus 7.9.
Those figures distinguish the market’s assessment of the outcome from its projected margin: the 87 percent price is not a projected vote share.
Minnesota’s 5th district
In Minnesota’s 5th district, Omar is priced at 98 percent against Nagel at 2 percent, according to Kalshi. The projected margin is D plus 58.7.
The board therefore shows a more heavily favored candidate and a larger projected Democratic margin in Minnesota’s 5th than in Texas’s 15th. These are live market readings and projections, not reported election results.
What it means for prediction markets
- Different levels of uncertainty: Pulido’s 87 percent pricing leaves more room for an opposing outcome than Omar’s 98 percent.
- Separate measures: Candidate prices and projected margins describe different aspects of each race and should not be read interchangeably.
- A dated snapshot: The supplied figures reflect the Nov 3, 2026, 4:15 PM ET update; no earlier pricing is provided to establish a trend.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Kalshikalshi.com
- Publisher
- https://kalshi.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Kalshi”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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