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Democrats lead Kalshi’s midterm outlook as Senate seat totals draw trading

Kalshi reports its midterm forecast favours Democrats in 240 House districts to 195 for Republicans, with 10 House races rated toss-ups, and Democrats in 19 Senate races to 16 for Republicans. Its most traded Senate combo is the seat-count market on how many seats Democrats hold, with 16 million dollars traded.

Kalshi’s midterm forecast favours Democrats in 240 of 435 House districts, compared with 195 for Republicans, according to Kalshi’s update published Nov 3, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET.

House advantage and Senate uncertainty

Kalshi also rates 10 House races as toss-ups. Those competitive contests qualify the party-by-party forecast: a district-level favourite does not necessarily indicate a decisive advantage.

In the Senate, Kalshi favours Democrats in 19 of 35 races and Republicans in 16. Iowa is the only Senate race classified as a toss-up, according to Kalshi.

The platform’s most traded Senate combo is the seat-count market tracking how many seats Democrats hold. That market has attracted 16 million dollars in trading, according to Kalshi.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The House forecast points toward a Democratic advantage, but the 10 toss-ups remain a source of uncertainty. Favourite counts and toss-up classifications should not be treated as separate, additive seat totals.
  • The Senate figures describe the 35 races, while the most traded Senate combo concerns how many seats Democrats hold. These are distinct measures for readers assessing the forecast.
  • The 16 million dollars traded establishes activity in the Democratic seat-count market, not the probability of any particular outcome.
KalshiSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com
    Source URL
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