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Kalshi’s third-quarter lead widens as combo contracts gain ground

Alea Research counted 37.3 billion dollars in Kalshi cash trades in the third quarter, up 75.8 percent quarter over quarter and 2.6 times the combined volume of Polymarket International and Polymarket US. Combo contracts rose from 36.5 percent of contract volume in July to 58.3 percent in September, while Kalshi open interest reached 1.47 billion contracts.

Kalshi accounted for 72.4 percent of third-quarter real-money prediction-market volume, with 37.3 billion dollars in cash trades, according to an Alea Research report carried by HTX.

The report, published Nov 4, 2026, at 5:45 AM ET, put Kalshi’s quarterly volume growth at 75.8 percent. Its trading volume was 2.6 times the combined total for Polymarket International and Polymarket US.

Combo contracts take a larger share

Combo contracts represented 36.5 percent of Kalshi’s contract volume in July. By September, that share had reached 58.3 percent, making them the majority of contract volume at the quarter’s close.

Kalshi’s open interest reached 1.47 billion contracts, according to the report. That measure is distinct from the 37.3 billion dollars in cash trading volume and the percentage of contract volume attributed to combos.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Venue concentration: Kalshi’s 72.4 percent share places it well ahead of its rivals on the report’s real-money trading-volume measure.
  • Changing trading mix: The increase in combo contracts’ share means readers assessing Kalshi’s growth should consider contract composition alongside headline volume.
  • Different measures: Cash volume, contract-volume share and open interest describe different aspects of activity; none of the supplied figures establishes liquidity or pricing quality in an individual market.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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