December Fed hike odds converge across prediction markets and futures
PredictionMarketPicks reports Kalshi and Polymarket both price a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting at 74.5 percent, with fed funds futures implying 73.3 percent, a hold at about 25 percent and a cut at about 1 percent in the November 3, 11:00 p.m. ET read. The tracker notes the market favorite has won 15 of 15 Fed decisions since 2025 on Kalshi and Polymarket, with the current target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent.
Kalshi and Polymarket each put the probability of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate increase at 74.5 percent for the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, according to PredictionMarketPicks. Fed funds futures implied a slightly lower probability of 73.3 percent.
A hike leads the December outlook
The figures reflect a November 3, 11:00 p.m. ET snapshot. PredictionMarketPicks placed the probability of unchanged rates at about 25 percent and a rate cut at about 1 percent.
The current target range is 3.75 to 4.00 percent. The pricing makes a quarter-point increase the clear favorite, while leaving a meaningful probability of a hold.
Tracker highlights an unbroken run
According to PredictionMarketPicks, the favored outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket has matched all 15 of 15 Fed decisions since 2025. That record provides context for the latest probabilities, but does not establish what the Fed will decide in December.
The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 12:30 AM ET. Its quoted probabilities are an overnight snapshot rather than a final assessment ahead of the meeting.
What it means for prediction markets
- Broad agreement: Both prediction platforms assign the same 74.5 percent hike probability, close to the 73.3 percent implied by fed funds futures.
- A hold remains relevant: At about 25 percent, unchanged rates represent the principal alternative; a cut is priced at about 1 percent.
- History is not certainty: The tracker’s 15-of-15 record describes past favorites, not a guarantee that the December favorite will prevail.
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