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Burrow MVP pricing diverges across Kalshi and Polymarket

Kalshi traders price Joe Burrow at 17.5 percent to win MVP while Polymarket traders price him at 15 percent, a cross-venue gap where Kalshi's best bid sits above Polymarket's best ask. iPredicta only lists gaps backed by at least 10,000 Kalshi contracts and 10,000 dollars of Polymarket volume.

Joe Burrow’s MVP chances are priced at 17.5 percent on Kalshi and 15 percent on Polymarket, according to iPredicta. The figures put Kalshi’s implied probability 2.5 percentage points above Polymarket’s.

The comparison was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. It captures a difference between the two venues’ pricing, rather than a single market-wide assessment of Burrow’s prospects.

Quotes and activity thresholds

The discrepancy extends to the quoted order books: Kalshi’s best bid is higher than Polymarket’s best ask, according to iPredicta. That distinguishes the observation from a comparison of headline probabilities alone.

iPredicta limits its listings to gaps supported by at least 10,000 Kalshi contracts and 10,000 dollars of Polymarket volume. Those are screening thresholds; the summary does not provide the exact activity totals for these markets or the quantities available at the best quotes.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Different implied probabilities: Kalshi prices Burrow’s MVP outcome 2.5 percentage points higher than Polymarket, showing a cross-venue disagreement at the reported snapshot.
  • Order-book relevance: The best-bid/best-ask relationship makes the gap worth distinguishing from a simple difference in displayed probabilities. The supplied figures do not establish how much could transact at those quotes.
  • Limited execution evidence: The activity thresholds provide context, but the summary does not include fees, settlement terms or quote depth needed to assess whether the difference could be captured.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    iPredicta
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to iPredicta”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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