Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Kalshi’s December shutdown probability climbs five points to 38 percent

DeFi Rate's shutdown board, observed November 1 at 11:48 AM ET, prices a partial or full federal government shutdown at 10 AM ET on December 12 at 38 cents on Kalshi. The chance rose five points over the past week, and the board tracks the December contract only, separate from the older DHS shutdown-duration markets.

Kalshi’s contract on a partial or full federal government shutdown stood at 38 cents, implying a 38 percent probability, according to DeFi Rate’s shutdown board observed November 1 at 11:48 AM ET.

The contract concerns whether a shutdown is in place at 10 AM ET on December 12. Its implied probability increased five points over the past week.

A December-specific measure

DeFi Rate’s board tracks only the December contract. It is separate from the older DHS shutdown-duration markets, so the reported price and weekly change refer to the December event rather than those duration contracts.

The report was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 12:45 PM ET. The quoted price reflects the earlier board observation, not a separately reported price at publication.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Timing defines the event: The contract targets shutdown status at 10 AM ET on December 12, not whether a shutdown happens at any point before then.
  • The weekly move was upward: A five-point increase brought the implied probability to 38 percent, still below 50 percent.
  • Market scope matters: The December contract and the older DHS shutdown-duration markets measure different outcomes and should not be treated as interchangeable.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related