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Chances of JD Vance visiting Ukraine by December 31 plummet to 9.2 percent

PredictionBubbles, reading Polymarket prices on October 31, prices JD Vance visiting Ukraine by December 31, 2026 at 9.2 percent, down 25.5 points in 24 hours. The market has traded 149,000 dollars over its life, with 459 dollars in the last day, and resolves on January 1, 2027.

Vance visit probability drops

Polymarket’s implied probability that JD Vance will visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026 stood at 9.2 percent on October 31, according to PredictionBubbles. That was a decline of 25.5 percentage points over 24 hours.

The update, published October 31, 2026 at 6:45 AM ET, showed a substantial shift away from the market’s specified outcome. The supplied reporting did not identify a reason for the decline.

Trading volume and timing

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract has recorded 149,000 dollars in lifetime trading volume. Only 459 dollars traded in the last day, putting the sharp probability move alongside comparatively limited recent activity.

The visit deadline is December 31, 2026, while the market’s listed resolution date is January 1, 2027. Those dates distinguish the cutoff for the event from the scheduled settlement.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 9.2 percent reading reflects market pricing, not confirmation of Vance’s travel plans.
  • The 25.5-percentage-point decline occurred during a day with 459 dollars in trading volume; lifetime volume alone does not establish how much activity supported the latest price.
  • The supplied reporting gives no catalyst for the move, leaving its connection to any change in visit prospects unclear.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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