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Democrat James Talarico dominates Polymarket Texas Senate odds against Ken Paxton

Polymarket prices Democrat James Talarico at 71 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 30 percent in the Texas Senate race ahead of the November 3 vote, with 8.4 million dollars traded and Talarico up two points in 24 hours. Polling averages cited in the report show a much closer race, with Talarico ahead 49.2 percent to 47.1 percent.

Market prices favor Talarico

Democrat James Talarico is priced at 71 percent in Polymarket’s Texas Senate market, compared with 30 percent for Republican Ken Paxton, according to RG.org. The report, published Oct 31, 2026 at 9:15 AM ET, comes ahead of the November 3 vote.

Trading volume has reached 8.4 million dollars, RG.org reports. Talarico’s market price rose two points over the preceding 24 hours.

Polling shows a narrower contest

The polling averages cited by RG.org put Talarico at 49.2 percent and Paxton at 47.1 percent—a substantially closer split than the market’s pricing might initially suggest.

The figures measure different things: polling averages describe voter support, while prediction-market prices reflect the market’s assessment of the outcome. A narrow polling lead and a larger advantage in implied winning probability are therefore not directly contradictory.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Talarico is the market favorite: His 71 percent price reflects a clear advantage over Paxton’s 30 percent, but not certainty about the November 3 result.
  • Recent movement favors Talarico: His two-point rise in 24 hours shows a shift toward him; the supplied report does not identify its cause.
  • Volume is not validation: The 8.4 million dollars traded establishes the scale of activity, not the accuracy of the market’s forecast.
PolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    RG.orgrg.org
    Publisher
    https://rg.org
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