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Israel-Iran ceasefire holding through November 15 rises 20.5 points to 76.0% on Polymarket

PredictionBubbles' politics board, read this run, lists the Israel x Iran ceasefire continuing through November 15 at 76.0%, up 20.5 points in 24 hours, on $887K traded…

The probability of Bitcoin dipping to $75,000 in November fell 30 percentage points to 46.5% on Polymarket, according to the supplied market snapshot published Nov 4, 2026, at 9:24 PM ET.

A lower probability, with limited context

The move leaves the contract below the 50% threshold. It reflects a decline in the market-implied likelihood of that price outcome, rather than a reported change in Bitcoin’s price.

The accompanying summary says no new platform headline had changed the picture in the preceding 30 minutes. It presents the crypto update as an editorial shift to a different category from the previous three editions, without identifying a catalyst for the odds movement.

No source links or full report were provided. The material does not specify the period over which the 30-point decline occurred, trading volume or the contract’s precise resolution criteria.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Odds have shifted away from the downside outcome: At 46.5%, the contract assigns a less-than-even probability to Bitcoin dipping to $75,000 in November.
  • The cause remains unclear: The absence of a fresh platform headline does not establish why traders repriced the outcome.
  • Contract details matter: Without resolution criteria or trading-volume data, the snapshot alone cannot establish how the price threshold is measured or how broadly supported the move is.
PredictionMarketsPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Polymarketpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Polymarket”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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