Polymarket ceasefire pricing steps down across Israel and Iran November dates

According to DeFi Rate, Polymarket’s market on the Israel and Iran ceasefire continuing recorded 510,000 dollars in trading over 24 hours.

The reported prices varied by date: the November 5 outcome was priced above 99 percent, compared with 89 cents for November 15 and 80 cents for November 22.

Prices decline for later outcomes

The November 15 and November 22 outcomes were separated by 9 cents. That pricing places a lower market-implied likelihood on the ceasefire continuing through the later date.

The figures come from a report published Nov 8, 2026, at 2:15 AM ET. November 5 therefore preceded publication, while November 15 and November 22 remained ahead.

Limits of the available snapshot

The supplied summary does not include the market’s settlement criteria or resolution status. The November 5 price above 99 percent should not, by itself, be read as confirmation that the outcome had formally settled.

Nor does the summary break down the 510,000 dollars in volume by outcome or provide earlier prices. It establishes trading activity and a date-by-date pricing snapshot, but not a trend.

What it means for prediction markets

• Time horizon matters: November 15 at 89 cents and November 22 at 80 cents indicate different expectations across the two future dates.
• Past dates need separate treatment: The November 5 outcome preceded the report’s publication; its price is not directly comparable to a fresh forecast for a future deadline.
• Volume is not directional evidence: The reported 24-hour turnover does not establish whether confidence in the ceasefire had risen or fallen.