Polymarket puts Israel–Iran ceasefire at 53 percent after 12-point gain
ProbCast, updated at 1:50 PM ET on November 4, scores the ceasefire move as worth watching rather than confirmed, in a 24-hour board led by confirmed election moves. A separate Polymarket market on a United States invasion of Iran before 2027 fell 7 points to 11 percent on 793,600 dollars, scored as a confirmed move.
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