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Polymarket raises odds of Israel and Iran ceasefire lasting through November 15

ProbCast lists the Israel and Iran ceasefire continuing through November 15 among confirmed moves on Polymarket, priced at 89 percent, up 8.5 points, with 206,500 dollars traded.

Probability rises to 89 percent

The Polymarket contract on the Israel and Iran ceasefire continuing through November 15 was priced at 89 percent, according to ProbCast’s update published Nov 8, 2026, at 5:45 AM ET.

ProbCast recorded an increase of 8.5 points and included the contract among its confirmed market moves. The higher price reflects a shift toward the ceasefire continuing through the specified date, rather than confirmation that it will do so.

Trading reaches $206,500

The update listed $206,500 traded on the contract. That figure accompanies the reported price move, but the supplied summary does not specify the period covered by the trading total or the price change.

The summary also provides no explanation for the repricing or details about developments affecting the ceasefire. The available information therefore establishes a change in market expectations, not its cause.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 89 percent price indicates that the market strongly favors the ceasefire continuing through November 15, while still leaving room for a different outcome.
  • The 8.5-point rise is a notable change in pricing, but the summary does not identify the comparison window.
  • The $206,500 trading total provides context on activity; it does not by itself establish market depth or explain why the odds moved.
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Sources & attribution

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    ProbCast
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    Source URL
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