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Chances for an Iran-Oman Hormuz pact by November 30 reach 27%

PredictionBubbles, reading Polymarket prices on October 31, prices an Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement by November 30 at 27.0 percent, up 12.0 points in 24 hours. The market has traded 199,000 dollars over its life, with 12,000 dollars in the last day, and resolves on December 1, 2026.

Agreement odds rise, but remain below 50 percent

Polymarket put the probability of an Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement by November 30 at 27.0 percent on October 31, according to PredictionBubbles. That was an increase of 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.

The figures appeared in a report published on Oct 31, 2026, at 7:00 AM ET. Despite the increase, the market continued to assign a lower probability to an agreement than to no agreement by the deadline.

Trading and resolution

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract has recorded 199,000 dollars in lifetime trading volume, including 12,000 dollars in the last day. Those figures describe trading activity, not the amount committed to either outcome.

The agreement deadline is November 30, while the market resolves on December 1, 2026. The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the price move or provide the contract’s detailed resolution criteria.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 12.0-percentage-point daily increase represents a substantial repricing, but the 27.0 percent probability still leaves an agreement as the less likely outcome.
  • Lifetime turnover of 199,000 dollars and daily volume of 12,000 dollars provide context for activity; neither establishes why prices changed.
  • The November 30 deadline and December 1, 2026 resolution date are distinct. Without detailed settlement rules, the supplied information does not establish what evidence would qualify as an agreement.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
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    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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