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Turek overtakes Hinson in Polymarket’s closest tracked Senate race

Votendi reports Hinson led at 52 percent in its November 2 snapshot, making Iowa the only race to change favourites among the eight Senate contests compared, while its polling average stayed near even. Iowa remains the closest race in the group.

Josh Turek moved ahead of Ashley Hinson in Polymarket’s Iowa Senate market on Election Day, reaching 53 percent, according to Votendi’s November 3, 2026 update published at 2:45 PM ET.

Iowa changes favourites

The move reversed the ordering in Votendi’s November 2 snapshot, when Hinson led at 52 percent. Iowa was the only race to switch favourites among the eight Senate contests the outlet compared.

The market shift was not accompanied by a clear polling advantage in the supplied summary. Votendi’s polling average for Iowa remained near even.

A narrow market lead

Iowa also remained the closest contest in the eight-race group, according to Votendi. Turek’s 53 percent market reading put him ahead, but left the race closely balanced rather than establishing a decisive favourite.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A change in leader, not a result: The November 2 snapshot favoured Hinson at 52 percent; the Election Day update put Turek ahead at 53 percent.
  • A distinct move within the comparison: Iowa alone changed favourites among the eight Senate races tracked by Votendi.
  • Polling remains a separate signal: The near-even polling average provides context for the narrow market lead, not confirmation of an election outcome.
PolymarketSenateElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Votendi
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