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Low jobless claims frame December Fed bets before October payrolls

Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 for the week ended October 31, matching a 57-year low and coming in below the 196,000 forecast. Kalshi prices a December Fed rate hike at 79.5 percent ahead of Friday's October payrolls release, the last major data print before the December meeting.

Claims fall below forecast

Initial jobless claims declined to 189,000 in the week ended October 31, according to PricedIn. The reading matched a 57-year low and was below the forecast of 196,000.

The November 5, 2026 report, published at 1:15 PM ET, places the claims figures alongside prediction-market pricing ahead of the next major labor-market release.

December rate decision in focus

Kalshi pricing puts the probability of a December Federal Reserve rate hike at 79.5 percent, according to PricedIn. That indicates a hike is the favored outcome, though the supplied reporting does not establish how that probability changed after the claims release.

Attention now turns to Friday’s October payrolls report. PricedIn describes it as the last major data release before the December meeting, making it the next focal point for traders assessing the rate decision.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A favored outcome, not a certainty: Kalshi’s 79.5 percent pricing leaves room for expectations about a December hike to shift.
  • Payrolls are the next checkpoint: Friday’s October employment release is the last major data print before the meeting, according to PricedIn.
  • Avoid assuming a market reaction: Claims came in below forecast, but the supplied figures do not show whether that result moved the December hike probability.
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