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Polymarket probability of Google claiming the best November AI model falls to 58.5%

PredictionBubbles, reading Polymarket prices on October 31, prices Google having the best AI model at the end of November 2026 at 58.5 percent, down 13.0 points in 24 hours. The market has traded 125,000 dollars over its life, with 12,000 dollars in the last day, and resolves on December 1, 2026.

Google probability drops to 58.5 percent

Google’s probability of having the best AI model at the end of November 2026 stood at 58.5 percent on Polymarket on October 31, according to PredictionBubbles. That was a decline of 13.0 percentage points over 24 hours.

The reading still put Google above the 50 percent mark, despite the sharp daily move. PredictionBubbles reported the figures on Oct 31, 2026, at 6:45 AM ET.

Trading and resolution

The market recorded 125,000 dollars in lifetime trading volume, including 12,000 dollars during the last day, according to PredictionBubbles. Those figures distinguish the activity accompanying the latest price move from trading accumulated over the market’s life.

The contract concerns Google’s standing at the end of November 2026 and resolves on December 1, 2026. The supplied summary does not identify the criteria for determining the best AI model or explain what drove the decline.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 58.5 percent price reflects a market probability, not a confirmed assessment of Google’s future model performance.
  • The 13.0-point daily decline marks a substantial repricing, but the available reporting does not establish its cause.
  • The December 1, 2026 resolution date is distinct from the end-of-November assessment period; the supplied material does not include the settlement criteria.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
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    https://predictionbubbles.com
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