Georgia reaches 24 percent as championship markets widen its advantage

Georgia’s national championship probability reached 24 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket following a 27-8 victory over Florida, according to Covers’ November 1 update.

The move lifted Georgia from 16 percent earlier in the week. Covers reported that its advantage on Kalshi was the largest held by any leading team on that platform this season.

Georgia gains as Ohio State retreats

The shift amounted to an 8-percentage-point increase for Georgia on both platforms. Its matching 24 percent readings put the two markets in agreement on the team’s championship chances.

Ohio State moved sharply in the opposite direction. After losing to USC, its probability on Kalshi dropped from 13 percent to 5 percent, according to Covers—an 8-percentage-point decline.

Miami’s pricing differs across platforms

Miami ranked second, at 19 percent on Polymarket and 16 percent on Kalshi, Covers reported. That left Georgia ahead by 5 percentage points on Polymarket and 8 percentage points on Kalshi.

The figures show a larger gap between the top two teams on Kalshi, despite identical pricing for Georgia. Miami’s probability differed by 3 percentage points across the platforms.

What it means for prediction markets

• A stronger leader, not a majority favorite: Georgia’s 24 percent reading marks a substantial rise from 16 percent but remains below 50 percent.
• Results drove sizable repricing: Georgia’s win over Florida and Ohio State’s loss to USC were followed by opposite 8-percentage-point moves in their reported Kalshi probabilities.
• Platform differences remain relevant: Agreement on Georgia’s probability did not extend to Miami, producing different margins between first and second place.