Moody leads Florida Senate pricing as traders weigh victory margin
Action Network reports Polymarket prices a Republican win by 12 to 15 points in the Senate race at 26 cents, with Nixon at 14 cents on Polymarket and 13 cents on Kalshi. Florida polls close at 7 p.m. ET.
Ashley Moody was priced at 88 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi in Florida’s Senate race against Angie Nixon, according to Action Network’s reporting published Nov 3, 2026, at 2:45 PM ET.
Nixon’s price stood at 14 cents on Polymarket and 13 cents on Kalshi, according to Action Network. The two platforms therefore showed the same price for Moody but a one-cent difference for Nixon.
Margin pricing adds another dimension
Beyond the candidate markets, Polymarket priced a Republican victory by 12 to 15 points at 26 cents, according to Action Network. That contract addresses a specific winning margin rather than simply which candidate wins.
Florida polls close at 7 p.m. ET. The reported prices provide a pre-close snapshot, with the candidate contracts and the margin contract measuring distinct outcomes.
What it means for prediction markets
- Winner versus margin: Moody’s 88-cent price and the 26-cent price for a Republican win by 12 to 15 points are not competing estimates of the same event.
- Cross-platform comparison: Moody’s pricing matched across Polymarket and Kalshi, while Nixon’s differed by one cent.
- Timing matters: The figures were reported before the 7 p.m. ET poll closing and should be read as that snapshot, not as final results.
Sources & attribution
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