Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec) priced at 78.0% on Polymarket, up 3.5 points, on $137K traded

The Polymarket contract tracking a Fed Hike–Pause–Hike sequence across Sep–Oct–Dec was priced at 78.0%, up 3.5 probability points, with $137K traded, in the supplied Oct 28, 2026 · 4:09 PM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the moving finance markets on its movers board.

The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for the repricing. It also does not provide the contract’s settlement rules or specify the measurement period for the $137K trading figure, limiting what can be inferred beyond the reported price and move.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, its rankings compare market-implied probabilities over 24 hours, using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshing every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 28 Oct 2026, 19:41 UTC.

The board ranks by the size of the probability-point change, irrespective of direction—not by trading volume or relative percentage gain. Its universe covers 1,989 markets lasting longer than 14 days; the displayed table contains the top 150 of 508 markets moving at least one probability point.

What the price establishes

The 78.0% reading describes the reported market pricing of the specified sequence, rather than confirmation of a Fed policy outcome. The 3.5-point increase establishes that traders priced that sequence more highly over the comparison window; the supplied reporting does not explain why.

PredictionBubbles treats volume and liquidity as context rather than ranking inputs. That distinction matters here: the $137K traded figure provides an activity measure, but the material supplies no order-book depth with which to assess how readily additional trading could move the price.

What it means for prediction markets

• Sequence matters: The reported price concerns Hike–Pause–Hike across Sep–Oct–Dec, not a standalone rate decision.
• The change is in points: The increase is 3.5 probability points, not a 3.5% relative gain.
• Activity is not depth: The $137K traded figure alone does not establish liquidity or the durability of the repricing.
• Interpretation remains limited: Without settlement terms or a reported catalyst, the snapshot supports a price-movement story—not a verified explanation of changing Fed expectations.