Best AI on Dec 31, 2026 — Gemini priced at 47.9% on Kalshi, up 17.8 points, on $2.9M traded

Gemini’s implied probability in Kalshi’s contract on the best AI on Dec 31, 2026 stood at 47.9%, up 17.8 percentage points over 24 hours, with $2.9M traded. According to PredictionBubbles, the Gemini outcome was the technology category’s biggest mover in its Oct. 28 snapshot.

The reading reflects venue data collected on Oct. 28, 2026, at 19:41 UTC. It captures a substantial shift in pricing, but the supplied material does not identify a news event or other catalyst behind the advance.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles tracks prices from Kalshi and Polymarket and updates its movers board every 15 minutes. Its rankings measure the size of 24-hour changes in probability points, rather than relative percentage changes; trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine placement.

The snapshot covered 1,989 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Its main table displayed the top 150 of 508 markets moving at least one probability point. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify, while short-lived, same-week fixtures are excluded.

What the snapshot leaves open

The Gemini figures establish the direction and scale of the repricing, not its cause. The supplied material does not include competing outcomes’ prices, the contract’s settlement criteria or order-book depth. It therefore does not establish whether Gemini was the favorite, how “best AI” will be determined, or how much trading could occur near the displayed price.

What it means for prediction markets

• The gain is in percentage points: the 17.8-point rise measures a change in implied probability, not a 17.8% relative increase.
• Volume and liquidity are distinct: $2.9M traded adds activity context, but does not establish the depth available at the quoted price.
• Resolution rules remain essential: without the settlement criteria or rival prices, the 47.9% reading alone cannot establish Gemini’s relative standing or the precise outcome traders are pricing.
• The figures are time-specific: the board refreshes every 15 minutes, so this reading describes the Oct. 28, 19:41 UTC snapshot rather than a fixed year-end forecast.